Evolution of Mortgage Interest Rates in Luxembourg in June 2024

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Rudolphe ABEN

Evolution of Mortgage Interest Rates in Luxembourg in June 2024

Economists unanimously agree that the ECB will reduce its key interest rates by 25 basis points this week, marking the first much-anticipated cut in five years.

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank will meet this Thursday, June 6, to announce, for the first time in almost five years, a reduction in the eurozone banks' key interest rates. This 25 basis point cut comes despite uncertain macroeconomic conditions and persistent inflation. Experts predict several rate cuts by the end of 2024, each of 25 basis points. However, the overall reduction for this year will depend heavily on GDP growth and inflation, two elements that are difficult to anticipate at this stage, although there are signs of improvement in inflation.

If these cuts materialize, they could potentially give a boost to the still-struggling Luxembourg real estate market. While professionals note a slight improvement in the number of transactions in existing residential real estate, new constructions are struggling to find buyers. Projects are delayed due to a lack of financing, and reservations from private individuals as well as investors in new constructions remain rare.

The economic impact of this upcoming cut will be assessed soon, and based on this evolution, the schedule for further cuts will be set. The ECB has adopted a cautious approach and avoids committing to further rate cuts in advance. It will likely reduce rates gradually to maintain a consistent level of monetary restriction.

The borrowing rate is a key factor in acquiring property through a mortgage. Its drastic increase has flattened the real estate market in Luxembourg and caused an unprecedented crisis. We anticipate a rate cut of 75 basis points before the end of 2024, which should significantly ease borrowers' monthly payments.